We are living through the unraveling of a system that can no longer sustain itself. Across global and local levels, we see the compound pressures of climate impacts, resource scarcity, skyrocketing debt burdens, and a changing economic order.
As systems thinker Nate Hagens reminds us, modern civilization rests on the back of fossil fuels that effectively provide humanity with the work equivalent of 500 billion human labour slaves. As fossil energy scales back and costs escalate, no amount of standard technology substitution can replace that sheer volume of energy.
This three horizons model is from Daniel Whal’s book Designing Regenerative Cultures. It was adapted earlier by Bill Sharpe. We are in Horizon 1 – a world in crisis and that can only go one way.
Why tweaking the status quo isn’t enough
When facing crisis, our default reaction is often Horizon 2 iteration: trying to make the existing system slightly cleaner, slightly faster, or slightly less destructive. But managing decline is not the same as building a future. We can’t just innovate to a viable future based on the same social and economic software that is generating the crisis. However, the innovations in Horizon two help to show the way to a more viable world.
To navigate the white water ahead, we must focus on Horizon 3: envisioning a genuinely viable world and backcasting the practical pathways to reach it. Instead of asking how we patch up broken models, we need to ask what a thriving, regenerated community looks like on the other side, and identify the “green shoots” already growing around us.
Connecting the green shoots
The good news is we do not have to start from scratch. Across Tai Tokerau and beyond, individuals, iwi, hapū, and community groups are already doing Horizon 3 work. From regenerative farming to community energy and local resilience projects, the seeds of the new system exist today.
Our primary challenge is connectivity. These efforts are often fragmented, working in isolation against the headwinds of the old system. To turn isolated green shoots into a resilient ecosystem, we must align our efforts, share knowledge, and build intentional transition pathways together.
Where do you fit?
At this year’s conference, we are signaling a core focus for the year ahead and next year’s gathering: Transition Pathways. Our conference this year has a focus on the transition from industrial, to regenerative local kai, and Electrify Te Tai Tokerau is promoting the transition to renewable energy.
Other working pathways will be determined by who steps forward to lead and contribute. Core areas ripe for collaborative action include:
- Community housing solutions: Moving from lifelong mortgages and exorbitant rents toward equitable, community-led housing.
- Socio-economic systems: Shifting from an extractive, materialist economy to circular, shared wealth where community wellbeing is the metric of success.
- Community-Centric Governance: Shifting decision-making power from centralised bureaucracy to local stewardship.
This is not a walk in the park, but we have done it before. Those of us whose ancestors came here under sail, embarked on perilous journeys with no guarantee of sucess. They made it. We can too.
Let’s kōrero
If you are working on Horizon 3 initiatives or want to help anchor a transition pathway for our region, we want to hear from you.
- Catch us during the conference breaks and plenary sessions today to share what you’re working on.
- Get in touch with the team to join one of the emerging working streams as we prepare for next year’s conference.
The future will be built by communities who choose to design their own way forward. Let’s build it together.
