CoP 30 Reflections

In writing this post, I am using Edward de Bono’s six thinking hats to ensure different perspectives on CoP 30. Here is a link to a video briefly outlining the hats and why they are used.

The black hat (risks and concerns)

We’ve got used to the post-CoP hangover. Negotiations go late into the last scheduled night, and when any written agreements emerge, they are replete with compromise. Donning Edward de Bono’s black hat evokes the perspective that we have been here before and these global talk fests just produce a lot of CO₂.The failure to secure a universal fossil-fuel phase-out roadmap undermines scientific urgency and leaves the door open to continued fossil fuel pollution.

If you are from one of the smaller nations of the world, such as the Pacific Island states, you have much to lose, all the more frustrating when you have done very little to exacerbate the crisis.

Global warming remains an existential threat!

New Zealand sent a delegation, but what was the point? Our government did not join the 83 countries calling for a fossil-fuel phase-out roadmap.

The white hat (facts and information)

The CoP produced a mixed but notable set of outcomes. Countries agreed to triple adaptation finance for vulnerable nations and launched new implementation-focused structures, including the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mechanism for a Just Global Transition. Progress was made on nature and oceans, with initiatives to strengthen forest protection, blue-economy pathways, and climate-health integration. However, parties failed to agree on a binding fossil-fuel phase-out roadmap, and many commitments remain voluntary or poorly defined.

The yellow hat (benefits and opportunities)

Over the course of the CoP I have been listening to commentary from Christiana Figueres and others on the Outrage and Optimism podcast. Christiana was the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and is widely acknowledged as a leading force behind achieving the Paris Accord in December 2015.

She applauded the development trajectory of CoP conferences, shifting towards implementing rather than negotiating. Positioning the CoP in the Amazon region also brought a long-overdue focus on nature-based solutions and the importance of marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

For me, perhaps the most encouraging sign was the exposure of self-interest of the petro-states, and the evidence that the transition to renewables is accelerating faster than anticipated (while still not fast enough). While government policy is important we are seeing that market forces can, and are, driving change.

The green hat

Here are four exciting developments.

1. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

The EU is introducing The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from 1 January 2026. Initially, it applies to carbon-intensive goods: iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. The CBAM will protect its own industries by levelling the carbon price.  EU producers won’t be undercut by dirtier imports. In theory, the CBAM gives an incentive for other countries to tighten their emissions policies, because their goods will be more competitive in the EU.

2. More tools for healing the climate

For too long, the climate narrative has focused too much on greenhouse gases as the main mitigating agent. It is encouraging to see marine and terrestrial regeneration getting more attention at CoPs. The increasing focus on indigenous knowledge is helping the developed world broaden its aperture to embrace a wide range of solutions.

3. Sub national governance and climate action

While the U.S. government did not send representatives, cities and states did. Here is Gavin Newson, Governor of California interviewed in the Outrage and Optimisim podcast.

Beyond national governments, cities are increasingly emerging as some of the most credible drivers of climate action. Urban centres are setting bolder emissions targets than their central government counterparts, rapidly deploying clean transport and energy systems, and collaborating through networks like C40 to scale solutions globally. In many ways, cities are now the laboratories, and often the leaders, of effective climate governance.

4. A changing climate narrative

I recall when politicians in Aotearoa said that we were too small to make a difference. The current government has a focus on economic growth – and perhaps they will spend more on climate action when we are wealthy again. Yeah – nah. It perpetuates the idea that climate action costs – while there is plenty of evidence from the CoP that there is a new economy rising where climate solutions also provide economic opportunity.

It’s easy to see why governments are laser focused on the cost of living. An October 2025  IPSOS survey found that the top issue facing New Zealanders was inflation and the cost of living at 61%. The economy was third on 32%. Climate change came in eighth at 15%.

This image from page 8 of the IPSOS report, shows how concern about the climate (the green line) peaked at 27% around the time of Cyclone Gabrielle to decline steadily to 15%.

The 15% possibly reflects those who care about the issue independent of economic considerations. As extreme weather events and other climate impacts ramp up along with the  economic advantages from investing in climate action, climate will rank higher, and the politicians will follow?

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Last impressions of CoP30  

I listened to Inside COP: The final hours of COP30 and the road ahead on the Outrage and Optimism podcast. Here is a summary of Tom Rivett-Carnac’s four “stories we should be telling from COP30,”

1. The Economics Have Tipped Decisively Toward Clean Energy

Summary:
The global energy economy has shifted irreversibly. Clean energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels almost everywhere, and this is driving massive investment, national competitiveness, and rapid technological transformation – often faster than policy can keep up.

Examples:

• Solar costs fell 12% last year.
• Battery storage costs have dropped 93% since 2010.
• 94% of all renewable power installed last year was cheaper than the cheapest fossil alternative.
• Spain: electricity costs went from 33% above the EU average to 20% below thanks to solar and wind.
• Pakistan installed 20× more solar in 3 years than Canada, France, NZ, and the UK combined.
• Uruguay: 98% renewable electricity, 50,000 new jobs, now exporting clean power.
• California: batteries and clean grid have ended rolling blackouts; no emergency alerts in 4 years.
• Clean energy is now cheap enough that momentum is self-reinforcing — capital leads and policy follows.

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2. Deployment Is Surging Far Faster Than Anyone Expected

Summary:
Clean technologies aren’t just cheaper, they’re being deployed at breathtaking speed. This acceleration is now disrupting fossil fuel demand in ways large enough to reshape global markets.

Examples:

• The IEA now expects renewable electricity to reach 60% by 2030 (and they under-forecast every year).
• India’s renewables have supplied over half its national electricity demand multiple times this year.
• Solar mini-grids in Cameroon and Zambia now power 30,000 rural homes and businesses.
• Norway: 99% of new cars sold are electric.
• Global electric transport is displacing 2 million barrels of oil per day — equal to Germany’s total oil use.
• Even small reductions in demand create big price risks for oil markets, accelerating the shift.

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3. COP30 Marked a Shift From Pledges to Mobilisation and Implementation

Summary:
This COP was the first where the focus truly shifted from “what we plan to do” to “how we are actually doing it.” Real money and real programmes are now in motion across forests, grids, oceans, health systems, and Indigenous land rights.

Examples:

• US$9.5 billion pledged for forests, including almost $7B for the Triple-F (Forest, Food, Finance).
• $2.5B for the Forest Climate Leadership Partnership.
• $1.8B to secure Indigenous land rights.
• 15 governments launched a global land-tenure commitment covering an area the size of Mongolia.
• $600M for methane reductions (critical for short-term warming).
• $82B per year committed to grids + storage — essential for a renewable-dominant system.
• $300M for climate-resilient health systems.
• $20B catalysed for ocean protection and sustainable blue economies.
• Global deforestation:
  • down 11% in the Brazilian Amazon this year, and
  • down 20% globally over the past decade.
• The COP “solution banks” now contain 700+ case studies — six times more than last year.

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4. Global Emissions Are Now Peaking and Beginning to Decline

Summary:
Even based on conservative national commitments, global emissions are projected to fall 12% in the next decade. This is not enough — but it signals a historic shift: humanity has entered the era of managing the decline of fossil fuels. The direction is now set, and the pace is accelerating beyond expectations.

Examples:

• NDCs show a 12% drop in emissions expected in the next 10 years.
• The world is past peak emissions, moving down the far side of the curve.
• The economics, investment flows, and political signals now reinforce one another.
• “Things take longer to change than you think — and then they change faster than you imagined.”

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Tom Rivett-Carnac concludes with the yellow hat on.

“We are entering a completely different period of human history in which we are managing the decline of fossil fuels. That changes the economics. It changes the investment trajectory… even on the most conservative estimates we are now over the peak and coming down the other side. And as we start racing ourselves down that other side of the peak anything is possible and I don’t doubt for a second that we will go far faster than anyone would have imagined.”
— Tom Rivett-Carnac